Rain Update - Tuesday Morning

By Jack Martin on Nov 27, 2018 at 07:01 PM

Good morning,

We are looking at a carbon copy of last week’s storm, as far as timing goes. Rain will start up Wednesday afternoon.

The only difference is we will see greater rain totals out of this next system.

Here is the sky view

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

Now with the details

Today, dry and warm. Off shore flow turns onshore and changes begin. Nice day overall.

Wednesday is transition day. Low pressure drops from the north. Rain will begin over SLO in the morning and arrive in the later afternoon to SB.

Areas south will see it a few hours later and Santa Ynez likely in the earlier afternoon.

Wednesday night will bring us heavier rain. Subtropical moisture will pull in from the west and combine with the low.

There will also be wind with this system, from the south.

This will increase the rain totals along the SLO and Santa Barbara hills.

Rain totals.

Still sticking with 1/2 to 2 inches coastal and up to 3 inches in the mountains.

Thursday the rain turns to showers, it will also be windy at times. Rain ends Thursday afternoon.

Friday, more wind as the system clears out.

Saturday another system rolls in. This system has less moisture to work with, so expect 1/2 of the amount from Wednesday and Thursday.

Regarding Wednesday and Thursday's system.

I think we will see in excess of 1 inch in Santa Barbara. Rain rates per hour are still to be under the 1/2 inch.

So burn areas in Montecito should be fine.

The most important area to watch is the Santa Monica mountains.

One model shows the greatest amount of rain there. With the freshly burned areas, this could cause trouble.

We will just need to watch this as the clock ticks closer.

In the meantime, get ready for rain. 36 hours and counting.

Have a great day.