Good Tuesday Morning

By Jack Martin on Oct 02, 2018 at 03:31 PM

Good morning,

The rain is now on track, and we know what will be happening.  Here is the low pressure system that will bring us our first rain.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html

As you can see in the satellite picture, the low is off the coast of northern California. This is spinning around and is moving east and south today.

The rain is going to hold off for us until the overnight hours, as the low moves closer to us. The rain will start out light with 1/10 to 2/10 of an inch only.

By late morning Wednesday, the core of the low will move over Santa Barbara, this will trigger the heavier rain.

The low is also tapping into some subtropical moisture to the south. Rain will turn to shower and will end Wednesday night.

The rain will move from north to south, starting in SLO and moving into Ventura, then LA later in the afternoon.

All in all we are now looking at around 1/2 inch coastal, and the mountains can see 1 inch or more on south facing mountains.

Winds will shift to the south east later today, as it always does when we get a low rotating counter clockwise. This is the reason the south facing mountains over Santa Barbara get more rain. This storm system will be an eye opener for us that the rainy season is coming.

Where the models reported a lot more rain Sunday morning, they have really pulled back on the totals.

To the south and east, you can see what is left of Rosa. It is hammering the Phoenix, AZ areas. They have received over 2 inches of rain. This, however, is not affecting our weather at all. It is the low to the north.

For the extended forecast, Thursday we will clear out and weather for the rest of the week and weekend will be uneventful. Just typical fall weather. This system will be a one-time rain. It looks like we will go back to a dry period after.

Ok that's it for the day, cover the patio furniture today or tonight...

Enjoy the first rain of the season.