Good Wednesday Morning

By Jack Martin on Jun 13, 2018 at 03:01 PM

Good morning from beautiful Santa Barbara,

As we wake up, fog is back along the coast. The cooling trend will begin on Thursday. 

This is mainly in the inland areas, like Santa Ynez.

Today we will see 70s coastal and upper 80s in the valleys. 

Thursday the cooler weather begins to affect highs. Highs will drop to 80 in the valleys.

Friday and Saturday will be even cooler, with highs in the mid-70s. 

Coastal area Santa Barbara will remain in the low 70s all weekend. Perfect graduation weather for UCSB. 

Yes if you did not know, Santa Barbara will be a very busy place this weekend with lots of family’s coming for graduation. If you want to go to dinner this weekend, you better act now because all the good restaurants will be booked. Also traffic is going to be challenging Friday and Sunday.

On the Cabo and hurricane update, the category 3 hurricane is already downgraded to a tropical storm. Yesterday there were winds of 110 miles an hour.

Today, because it has run into cooler water, it is down to 70 mile an hour winds and reduced to a tropical storm. Winds will continue to drop off as it gets closer to the coast line. Looks like late Thursday night will be when it hits land. Winds should be reduced to 40 miles an hour.

Lots of rain Thursday and Friday, but the damaging winds will not be a factor. 

Here is how it looks right now 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?cone#contents

TROPICAL STORM BUD

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* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time: D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.