Thursday Forecast

Good Thursday morning,

We waited until 8PM for last night’s rain, but we had good totals for the short period of rain.

Everyone saw 1/2 to 1 1/4 inches from yesterday’s system.

https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/images/countyPrecipMaps/santabarbara_24HRprecip.png

Today, we start out with the wind. "Blowing hard at my house", however, sunshine will prevail today.

More rain is on the way. The next system will arrive Friday. We are looking at light to moderate rain most of the day Friday, with rain totals around the same as last night.

Every little bit adds up, and for Montecito, little at a time is better. 

Http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-WV.HTML

Looks like we will have a dry weekend. Rain clears out early Saturday morning, so you will wake to sunshine.

Sunday will also be a nice day with a little pop up ridge forming. Great for Jack Johnson at the Bowl (see you there!)

Monday and Tuesday are now looking good, where they were talking at one point about rain Tuesday night. It looks like Wednesday night is the start of this next event.

This is still a ways away, models suggest we could see a 36 hour period of moderate to heavy rain. We will need to watch this one closely as it approaches.

A few things to think about with the forecast models over the past 2 weeks...they have been anything but perfect. Where they did call for rain, the timing and intensity was not very good.

With that being said, next week’s system could fizzle to a lesser event. I don’t want anyone to assume or panic at this point.

We will just need more time to know what will happen.

For all my Montecito friends, I appreciate you trusting my forecast. I know how hard it must be on you all, not knowing whether you will need to leave.

I feel sorry for you all. A home is a place you can take shelter normally. With the conditions after Jan 9th, this has all changed. I will do my best to keep you informed…a special Thank you to Bill for the kind words.

I do work hard to study and write this forecast each morning.

Have a great day, sunshine will prevail today.