Rain is Knocking on Your Door

By Jack Martin on Mar 13, 2018 at 02:48 PM

Good morning,

Hope everyone slept well. The rain must have, because no rain to note so far. Don’t worry, it will arrive soon. The low is pulling the subtropical jet over us once again. This time we have better dynamics for heavier rains. Here’s this morning’s satellite video.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html

Rain will start up from 6 am to 8 am. Showers are showing up to the north right now in Santa Ynez. Rain will arrive in SB mid-morning, then travel south to LA this afternoon. Like the last storm, this is a warmer system. The difference is it is going to rain harder.

The heavier rain should arrive around 9 am and last till 2 pm. Rain rates are going to approach the 1/2 inch to 7/10 of an inch per hour. This will test the creeks in Montecito. I have to go to carp first thing this morning. I hope CHP does not decide to close the 101. That would make my day unfortunate; maybe I should pack a travel bag!!!!

Rainfall is going to be an inch to 1 1/2 in SB. The rain should taper off mid-afternoon and turn to showers. Rain over LA will linger into the later afternoon.

Tonight, only a slight chance of showers.

Wednesday a dry day, but rain returns over night into Thursday. Thursday’s rain is going to be lighter, 1/2 inch or less.

Friday and Saturday, the next system arrives. Models have really had a hard time on this one. They cannot decide if this will be a moderate rain or heavy. Now they have shifted back to moderate...what does that mean?

Well one inch maybe…We will wait and see. We should know what is happening by Thursday morning.

Looks like Sunday will be a dry day. The sun will shine for Jack Johnson at the bowl.

Looks like we have more rain for Monday, as another system is advertised to bring us more rain.

Bottom line, it will be a rainy period. Rain through at least early next week, with breaks on Wednesday and Sunday.

Enjoy, update early Wednesday.