Tuesday Morning

Good morning,

Looks like the low is right over us right now. You can see it spinning counter clockwise.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=radar_cr&list=VBX_7.png,VBX_6.png,VBX_5.png,VBX_4.png,VBX_3.png,VBX_2.png,VBX_1.png,VBX_0.png

Most of the rain is off shore, but the best chance of rain for us will be in the next 3 hours. After that, the storm will move south and east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/h5-loop-wv.html

This was another system that teased us, but did not perform. Rain totals to this point have been less than 1/10 of an inch.

We still have rain chances this morning, but it will clear up this afternoon. We will then remain dry throughout Thursday day time.

Thursday night through Friday, we are looking at a good storm with southern flow and a subtropical connection. This system is looking better as time rolls on. We are looking now for 1 to 1 1/2 inches and 2 inches in the mountains. Heaviest rain rates will be 1/3 to 1/2 inch per hour. They will need to keep an eye on Montecito burn areas, but remember the mud flow had 1/2 an inch of rain in 5 minutes. The max rate is 12 times less than the Jan 9th event. Creeks will flow, but not like rivers.

The weekend is looking dry, but cool. As a matter of fact, all days will stay cool with highs in the 50s or low 60s at best. 

Ok, have a great day.

Stay tuned.