Good Thursday Morning

By Jack Martin on Nov 17, 2016 at 07:30 PM

Looks like all the weather models are accurately predicting our weather for the week.

The weak system passed to the north of our area, bringing us wind yesterday in the afternoon and overnight. That kept the temps a little warmer for us along the coast. The valleys were not as cold, but did drop into the low 40s.

Winds this morning are shifting to the northeast, bringing us a Santa Anna event. This will shift winds into the Ventura south locations. For us we will see a nice warm up for the next few days. Friday should be the warmest day of the week. Valleys are still going to be cold tonight getting into the lower 30s.

All is still on track for the weekend; it looks like Saturday the next system rolls in from the north. Rain will drop into the SLO area Saturday and Saturday night. Our rain chances actually begin overnight Saturday into Sunday.

This is the point of separation between the weather models. They seem to differ on when and how much rain we will get. At this point the best chance is for overnight Sunday into Monday with around a 1/3 of an inch in coastal areas and 1/2 to an inch in the mountains.

The difference is the models do not agree on the approach of the low. One says it will cut off and create more rain. The other does not.

So we will stay with the safer solution for now. Rain chances start over night Saturday, but more likely Sunday night.

Enjoy the warmer days, through Friday. The models will agree by Saturday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html