12/15/23

Good Friday morning,

If you take a look at the satellite, you’re gonna see that offshore flow, and the ridge is keeping all the clouds away and pushing them to the north. This condition will persist through Saturday and matter of fact, Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven with the upper 70s and some low 80s But quite chilly at night.
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=34.9,-129.3,4z/date=2023-12-15,03:00,-8

Sunday picture begins to change high pressure starts to go away and the first system starts to move in. It does look like this will be pushed more to the north and rain will be minimal and not starting until later Sunday afternoon. With this being said we should see anywhere from 1/4 to a half an inch in Santa Barbara. Add a bit more on the Central Coast.

Monday Looks to be showering with possibly a quarter of an inch of rain.

Transition day Tuesday before a cut-off low arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. This is the system to watch. At this point, it appears the low is just going to spin around off the coast and pull up moisture from the subtropical and will just pump the rain into the area affecting the south-facing mountains of Montecito and Santa Barbara with the heaviest rainfall. It does appear 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely, but the exact timing is still not clear.

Looks like the period Wednesday through Friday are the most likely days for the heavier rain. The cut-off low makes it difficult to predict the exact timing and the amount of rain so stay tuned.

More fun to come 

Jack Martin