Ok here she blows. Rain and southeast winds are going to make this one a good storm.
Take a look at the graphic or link. They are showing a flash flood watch for the entire area.
Just a FYI flash flood watch does not mean we are going to have it. We are only watching out for the possibility. A WARNING means it will likely happen.
Ok onward with the forecast.
It is looking quite nice for a good windy, heavier rain event. The satellite is looking good, driving the south jet into the area. Combining with the low, it is going to make a classic wet storm. Look at the loop, it is taking shape.
So when will it start? Well rain is north right now (bay area). The low drifts south later today and early Thursday morning the rain starts on the central coast and drop south.
Rain should hit SB between 10 am and noon. Rain will start lighter, then pick up. Heaviest rain will be from 6 PM to midnight for SB. 3pm to 9pm on the central coast , 8pm to 2 am Ventura south. LA 11pm to 6 am.
Winds will be out of the southeast and drive the rain into houses that face this direction.
It will be one of those rains that structures leak from wind and water driving into walls, windows and doors that face to the south or east.
It will be a 24 hour event. Not raining all the time, but in the middle it will be heavy.
I hope no one needs to go to LA on Friday morning. The roads will be a mess, with lots of fender benders.
All in all rain totals coastal around 1 inch, mountains 1 to 3 inches... Santa Barbara more, because of our south facing mountains. We should see better mountain and coastal totals.
Oh today. Mid to high clouds. No excitement . Rain starts overnight. North to south.
The weekend will be dry but cool. Winds will blow hard from the northwest Friday afternoon and night.
PUT your Swans in a safe, wind sheltered area.
Snow levels will start out high, because the sub-tropical jet is going to keep levels at around 8000 ft. As the cold low arrives Friday morning, levels drop to 5000 feet. It will be a cool weekend.
Windy on Friday afternoon as the wind shifts to the northwest.
Enjoy the fun.. It is going to be a good storm!